Relación entre políticas fiscales y atractivo de inversión extranjera directa en el sector energético Ecuatoriano

Abstract

This study examines the relationship between fiscal policies and the attraction of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in Ecuador’s energy sector. It hypothesizes that fiscal stability enhances FDI, while abrupt policy changes may negatively affect its flow. The objective is to assess the impact of fiscal incentives on investment and their relationship with tax revenue using an econometric approach. Data from the Central Bank of Ecuador and the Internal Revenue Service (2011-2024) were analyzed, comprising 54 quarterly observations. The Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) model was applied to examine short- and long-term relationships, considering a structural break in 2021, when the income tax exemption for renewable energy investments was removed. Results indicate that before the break, FDI had no significant effect on tax revenue, but after the incentive’s elimination, its impact became positive. The study concludes that fiscal policies must balance investment attraction with revenue stability to support the development of the energy sector. Keywords: Keywords: Foreign Direct Investment, Fiscal Policies, Tax Revenue, Energy Sector, ARDL