Impacto de shocks externos e Inversión extranjera directa sobre la productividad total en países andinos 1995-2019

Abstract

CONDITION FOR PUBLICATION OF PROJECT. The study analyzes the influence of external shocks, particularly commodity prices and foreign direct investment (FDI), on total factor productivity (TFP) in Andean Community countries. It is based on the hypothesis that these effects are significant and heterogeneous, which justifies the need to understand whether they generate sustained improvements in productivity or only temporary effects. To address this issue, advanced econometric techniques were applied, including Johansen cointegration tests, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and Impulse-Response Functions, using a balanced panel of data for Bolivia, Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru during the period 1995–2019. The results showed that FDI responded actively to commodity price cycles, although its direct effect on TFP was null. Moreover, terms of trade and natural gas exerted negative and persistent impacts, while oil and copper generated positive but transitory effects. It is concluded that the benefits of positive shocks do not translate into structural improvements in productivity in the Andean region, highlighting the vulnerability of these economies to external factors. Keywords: Terms of trade, commodity prices, VECM model, Andean Community, external volatility.