Valoración financiera de una empresa del sector agrícola

Abstract

CONDITION FOR PUBLICATION OF PROJECT. purpose of this thesis is to determine the financial value of a typical banana company in Ecuador, integrating both internal and external factors that affect its performance into the analysis, with the goal of strengthening investment strategies and business competitiveness. The valuation was conducted using the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method, considered the most appropriate method for reflecting the value-generating capacity of an operating company. The study aimed to identify the main determinants of value and establish the business and equity value of the company, which operates as an SME with over 25 years of experience in the Ecuadorian banana market. The methodology used consisted of projecting free cash flows over five years, based on assumptions supported by historical financial analysis, the performance of the banana sector, and macroeconomic variables. To incorporate the uncertainty inherent in the model, the Monte Carlo simulation technique was applied, allowing for the analysis of a wide range of possible scenarios. The discount rate (WACC) was estimated using the CAPM model adjusted for the country risk premium. The results obtained show that the estimated value of the company amounts to $1,106,564.77, with a 95% confidence interval ranging from $881,214.01 to $1,328,713.48, demonstrating the robustness of the model under conditions of uncertainty. Among the most relevant conclusions, it is noted that the variables with the greatest impact on value are cost of sales and projected revenue growth. Consequently, it is recommended to continuously monitor these key factors, as well as periodically update the model's assumptions according to the evolution of the company's operating and financial environment. Keywords: Business Valuation, Discounted Cash Flow, Cost of Capital, Financial Analysis and Decision Makin