Identificación de zonas de riesgo por inundaciones, deslizamientos y socavones en Ecuador con visualizadores interactivos

Abstract

CONDITION FOR PUBLICATION OF PROJECT. In Ecuador, recurrent floods, landslides, and sinkholes cause human, material, and economic losses, underscoring the need for operational tools for territorial planning and prevention. This project builds interactive ArcGIS dashboards that integrate nationwide records (2012–2023) of reported events, enabling temporal and spatial exploration of the three hazards with filters by year, month, province, county, and parish. Additionally, we develop a cantonal flood risk index (R) that combines vulnerability (V), exposure (E), and hazard (P) using principal component analysis (PCA) and a multiplicative aggregation (R = V × E × P). Vulnerability and exposure draw on recent census indicators, while hazard incorporates 24-hour maximum precipitation and historical flood recurrence. Results show national flood peaks in 2021 and 2023, concentrated between February and May. At the subnational scale, recurrent hotspots appear in Guayas (e.g., Guayaquil, Salitre, Durán) and Manabí (Portoviejo, Chone, Manta). Within Guayas, the index identifies high-risk clusters where high exposure and gaps in basic services amplify vulnerability. The dashboards and the index provide actionable evidence to prioritize areas, guide preventive measures, support resource allocation, and strengthen risk communication for local decision-makers. Keywords: ArcGIS, Exposure, Index, Hazard, GIS, Vulnerability.