Modelo de teoría de colas para optimizar el número de puertas de ingreso de vehículos de carga en el puerto de Guayaquil

Abstract

CONDITION FOR PUBLICATION OF PROJECT. In this study, the vehicle entry system at one of the port’s access points is analyzed with the aim of evaluating its performance and proposing improvements to optimize traffic flow. The working hypothesis suggests that expanding queue capacity and increasing the number of servers would significantly reduce waiting times and prevent the unauthorized use of an avenue not intended for truck parking. The justification lies in the need to improve operational efficiency and reduce congestion, thus positively impacting productivity and the surrounding urban environment. Administrative data from the port, covering the period from January 2024 to June 2025, were used. The dataset was cleaned to remove incomplete or atypical records, and the system was modeled using queuing theory. Simulations and goodness-of-fit tests were applied to validate the parameters and assess different operational scenarios. The results showed that the current system, modeled as a tandem queue network with two stages —the first of type G/G/3 and the second of type G/G/2— experiences high utilization rates and prolonged waiting times during peak hours. Simulation outcomes indicated that increasing service capacity, especially in the first stage, leads to significant reductions in both total waiting time and accumulated queue length. It is concluded that a redesign based on the simulated alternatives can substantially improve system efficiency, reduce congestion, and enhance the operational performance of the port’s access infrastructure. Keywords: Queuing theory, Simulation, Ports, Optimization