Evaluación de los cambios de uso y cobertura de tierra alrededor del trasvase Chongón-El Azúcar (Ecuador)

Abstract

CONDITION FOR PUBLICATION OF PROJECT. This thesis examines the environmental impacts of inter-basin water transfers (IBWTs) and the role of remote sensing, articulating a global evidence framework together with a case study in Ecuador’s tropical dry forest (TDF). The hypothesis is that the artificial availability of water reconfigures the landscape, intensifying pressures on forests and on water quality. A bibliometric analysis (Scopus and Web of Science, 1971-2024) was integrated with a systematic review. Subsequently, land-use/land-cover (LULC) changes associated with the Chongón-El Azúcar system (2019-2025) were evaluated: mosaics from Sentinel-2 SR images were generated in Google Earth Engine, spectral indices (NDVI, SAVI, MNDWI, NDCI, NDBI) were computed, and a Random Forest model was trained. The results evidenced the growth and evolution of publications from purely technical topics toward the consideration of comprehensive impacts and tools such as remote sensing, spectral indices, and machine learning. The case study revealed a net loss of 1,223.77 ha of TDF, with hotspots near the Chongón-Sube y Baja canal and the El Azúcar reservoir, a transition from clear to turbid water, and signs of eutrophication associated with agricultural activities. It is concluded that IBWTs intensify anthropogenic pressures and that remote sensing enables annual monitoring useful for adaptive management aligned with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) 6, 11, and 15. Keywords: Interbasin water transfer (IBWT); remote sensing (RS); Random Forest (RF); Land Use and Land Cover (LULC); tropical dry forest (TDF).