Análisis comparativo de pérdidas probables mediante curvas de fragilidad para evaluar el impacto del uso de tecnologías de protección sísmica

Abstract

This study aims at evaluating and comparing the structural performance and the expected economic, physical, and human losses of a reinforced concrete building in its conventional configuration and with the incorporation of seismic isolation technologies, through nonlinear static analysis. The hypothesis is that a methodology based on nonlinear static (pushover) analysis, seismic fragility, and vulnerability allows a consistent evaluation of the technical feasibility of both design alternatives, providing a realistic representation of structural behavior and associated losses. The study was carried out through structural modeling of the building and the execution of pushover analyses for both configurations, from which the capacity curve was obtained and subsequently transformed into fragility curves using the SPO2FRAG method. The fragility curves were then converted into vulnerability curves by assigning loss ratios and combined with the site-specific seismic hazard to estimate probable losses. The analysis was supported by national and international standards, as well as specialized computational tools. The results allowed the identification of differences in structural response, damage probability, and expected losses between both configurations. It is concluded that the applied methodology constitutes an appropriate tool for comparing the probable losses of conventional and seismically isolated solutions, providing relevant information for seismic risk mitigation and structural design decision-making. Keywords: Seismic isolation, Pushover, Fragility, Probable losses