Simulación predictiva para factibilidad de inversión logística en centro de acopio de cacao

Abstract

This project addresses operational saturation at a cocoa collection centre in Guayaquil, where the increase in grain reception threatens installed capacity. The main objective is to evaluate, through an innovative approach, the feasibility of a logistics investment that mitigates the risk of collapse and ensures business continuity. This research is justified by the need to transform empirical decision-making into a management model based on predictive data. To carry out the project, the initial situation was diagnosed and three potential investment scenarios were modelled using Discrete Event Simulation in SIMIO software. These scenarios were then evaluated by integrating uncertainty variables using Monte Carlo simulations in @RISK. The results showed that the current state operates close to its maximum limit, representing a high operational risk. It was determined that investing in an additional scale drastically reduced waiting times and bottlenecks. To validate this finding, a proprietary operational efficiency indicator was designed to compare the proposals against the baseline scenario. It was concluded that the implementation of predictive technologies is imperative for competitive sustainability, demonstrating that the integration of operational and financial analysis strengthens management control in the cocoa sector. Keywords: