Evaluación del cambio climático en los patrones de precipitación y su influencia en el diseño y planificación del Embalse Chiquicahua situado en la provincia de Tungurahua, Ecuador.

Abstract

Climate change is transforming precipitation patterns, posing significant challenges for the planning and management of water infrastructure. According to Poveda and Mesa, it is essential to update hydrological models and incorporate future climate scenarios to ensure the long-term sustainability of hydraulic infrastructures. This project analyzes how climate change may affect precipitation patterns and the design of the Chiquicahua reservoir in Tungurahua, Ecuador. The study aligns with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs): SDG 6 (Clean Water and Sanitation), SDG 7 (Affordable and Clean Energy), SDG 11 (Sustainable Cities and Communities), and SDG 13 (Climate Action). The results show that for the period 2040-2059, the projected flow under the RCP 2.6 (low concentration) scenario exceeds the baseline precipitation used in the design of the reservoir by 6.6%. This indicates that a low-emissions scenario could enhance water availability, whereas high emissions, RCP 8.5, pose risks of reduced flow in 1.7% and decreased sustainability. This analysis underscores the importance of integrating climate projections into the design of water infrastructure to ensure its resilience to climate change. Keywords: Reservoir, climate change, water resource management, Tungurahua, rainfall.