Efectos de la Inversión extranjera directa en la recaudación tributaria dentro del sector manufacturero en Ecuador (2017-2023)

Abstract

The present research analyzes the effects of Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) on the tax revenue of the manufacturing sector in Ecuador during the period 2017-2023. To evaluate these dynamics, an approach based on Vector Autoregressive (VAR) models was used to observe the dynamic relationship between these two variables, including control factors such as the Gross Value Added (GVA), the Producer Price Index (PPI), employment and interest rates, followed by an impulse-response analysis. The results highlight the importance of foreign investment flows affecting tax revenue with a significant negative percentage of -0.001455% every two quarters in one of the country's most relevant tax-collecting economic sectors, considering the particularities of the Ecuadorian environment, such as changes in interest rates and dependence on external markets. By showing the results, we seek to contribute to the design of public policies that optimize the attraction of foreign investment while ensuring fiscal sustainability in the manufacturing sector. Keywords: Tax collection, foreign direct investment, autoregressive vectors, impulse response, manufacturing sector.