Riesgo de quiebra en las pymes del Ecuador: Un análisis de predicción financiera

Abstract

Business bankruptcy is a phenomenon of great economic and social relevance due to its repercussions on owners, investors, creditors, and the market. In the Ecuadorian context, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) represent a strategic sector due to their contribution to GDP and their role as generators of employment, although their financial vulnerability increases the risk of insolvency. This study analyzed the financial statements of SMEs from 2021 to 2023 using statistical prediction models, finding that Altman's Z-score model offers the greatest accuracy, followed by the Pascale and Springate models. The main factors associated with bankruptcy were portfolio management, collection periods, sales turnover, and financial burden, in addition to solvency, liquidity, and profitability indicators. It is concluded that the implementation of predictive models together with strategic management and monitoring of indicators contribute to strengthening the sustainability and resilience of SMEs in the national economy. Keywords: business bankruptcy, SMEs, predictive models, Altman Z-score, financial sustainability