Modelo predictivo del crecimiento microbiano durante la fermentación del cacao fino de aroma

Abstract

CONDITION FOR PROJECT PUBLICATION. The present study determines the optimum time and temperature conditions that maximize the growth of beneficial microorganisms during national cocoa fermentation, aiming to provide quantitative criteria for its control. The hypothesis states that the microbial response is non-linear and presents a time-temperature interaction, which is justified by the need to standardize the post-harvest process. For the development, a full factorial design with center points was applied, microbiological counts were performed by plate seeding, and data were analyzed on a 𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙𝑙10(𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶𝐶 /𝑔 ) scale. Likewise, second-order polynomial models were adjusted using R software and maximum points were estimated within the experimental domain. The results indicated a favorable thermal region near 30–31 °C for yeasts and bacteria. The times associated with the predicted maximum were 48 h for yeasts, 74.81 h for LAB, and 87.48 h for AAB, with an adjusted 𝑅𝑅2 between 0.785 and 0.911. It is concluded that the optimum temperature is consistent across groups, while the optimum time depends on the type of microorganism, confirming that the models are useful tools for local optimization. Keywords: Response surface, Factorial design, Optimization, Quadratic models, Microbiological count.