Modelo hidrológico de la cuenca del rio Guayas bajo escenarios de cambio climático RCP 4.5 Y 8.5 utilizando el modelo hidrológico swat

Abstract

The Guayas River basin, with an area of 34,500 km2, is one of the most important in Ecuador and on the Pacific coast. It is home to nearly 40% of the national population. It is the area with the highest production of agricultural goods in the country. It is estimated that during the dry season it reaches average levels of 230 m3/s and during the rainy season it exceeds 1,500 m3/s. The development of the hydrological model for the Guayas River basin was carried out with SWAT, through ArcMap version 10.5, which was duly calibrated and validated under the SwatCup interface with the SUFI 2 algorithm, obtaining as a result a validation with an R2 = 0.63, NSE = 0.601 and a Pbias = -15.4%, although this last value indicates that the model overestimates the production of simulated flows versus those observed, they are within the acceptable range, so the simulations that the model produces are useful for academic purposes. The incorporation of the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 climate change scenarios for the Vinces River sub-basin resulted in flow production maintaining a marked seasonality that coincides with the rainy season, however, with an upward trend for each scenario, in addition to witnessing extreme values with greater intensity in the months of February and April. Keywords: Anthropogenic, Flow, Climate change, Hydrological cycle, Future climate, RCP scenarios, Greenhouse gases, Hydrological model