Análisis de la relación entre la inversión extranjera directa y la recaudación tributaria: Efectos en el sector comercio

Abstract

This research analyzes the impact of foreign investment on fiscal revenue in Ecuador's commerce sector, considering both short- and long-term effects, using a time series approach with the ARDL model. The research used data from 2018 to 2024 and aimed to analyze the relationship and evolution between both variables. Additionally, a SARIMA model was used to make projections for the years 2025 and 2026. The results revealed that in the short and long term, foreign direct investment does not have a significant effect on tax collection in the commerce sector. The projections for tax collection in the sector showed an increase, representing 7.24% of the level collected during the second quarter of 2026, while for foreign direct investment it represented 0.083%. These findings highlight the need to implement stable and efficient tax policies that encourage local participation in multinational companies. This would maximize the tax benefits of FDI, ensuring that tax revenues derived from these investments have a more relevant impact. Keywords: Tax revenue, Foreign direct investment, trade sector, ARDL