Inversión extranjera directa y regalías mineras en Ecuador: Estudio de su influencia en la recaudación tributaria (2010 - 2024)

Abstract

This study focuses on the Ecuadorian mining sector, analyzing the relationship between Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and tax collection through mining royalties during the period 2010–2024. Through an econometric approach, quarterly data were analyzed using the ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, which allows evaluating the short- and long-term dynamics between the variables of interest. In addition, exports of mining products are included as a control variable in the model. As a result, mining exports are a significant determinant of mining royalties, while FDI does not present a significant effect in the study, since it is likely that the relationship occurs indirectly and no relationship is observed with production volumes, which are strongly related to mining royalties. Finally, these results will serve as a basis for future studies that investigate other relevant taxes within the mining sector, to observe which of them is best explained by the FDI. Keywords: Foreign direct investment, mining royalties, tax collection, fiscal sustainability, Ecuadorian economy.