Inseguridad urbana y economía local: análisis del impacto de la violencia en Guayaquil, 2015–2024

Abstract

CONDITION FOR PUBLICATION OF PROJECT. Urban insecurity has become one of the main socio-economic challenges in Ecuador, particularly in Guayaquil, a city that has experienced an alarming increase in lethal violence in the last decade. This study aims to analyze the impact of criminal activity—measured through homicides, robberies, and perceived insecurity—on key variables of the local economy, such as private investment, international tourism, youth employment, and hotel occupancy from 2015 to 2024. Quantitative methods were applied, including time series analysis and multiple linear regression, using official data from the Ministry of the Interior, the National Institute of Statistics and Censuses (INEC), and academic sources. The results reveal a statistically significant negative correlation between rising insecurity and local economic performance. Specifically, increases in homicides and perceived insecurity are linked to proportional decreases in investment and tourism activity. Theoretically, the Broken Windows Theory and Opportunity Theory were contrasted, with the latter offering a stronger explanation of the structural criminal phenomena affecting urban economic development. Moreover, the study critically examined Ecuador's legal and institutional frameworks, identifying both regulatory progress and major implementation gaps. Local policies such as "Guayaquil Más Seguro" were also assessed, showing mixed results in reach and sustainability. The findings underscore the need to redesign security policies from an integral, evidence-based, and territorially grounded approach. Keywords: urban insecurity, homicides, private investment, local economy, Guayaquil, organized crime, public policies, time series.