Hacia una gestión eficiente del servicio energético en el Ecuador: alternativas y modelo de gestión

Abstract

CONDITION FOR PUBLICATION OF PROJECT. The Ecuadorian energy system faces significant challenges in operational efficiency, matrix diversification, and response capacity to critical events. Although more than 80% of generation comes from renewable sources, the heavy dependence on hydroelectricity makes it vulnerable to climatic phenomena such as El Niño, which in 2024 generated prolonged blackouts and significant economic losses. Technical and commercial losses exceed 14%, and the lack of sufficient thermal backup exacerbates the risk of rationing, affecting homes, industry, and basic services. This context justifies the need for a management model that modernizes the sector and makes it more resilient. The study's overall objective is to develop a management model for the national energy service that optimizes operational efficiency, guarantees supply, and strengthens long-term sustainability. To this end, three specific objectives were set: to diagnose the management model and its current regulations; to compare experiences with countries in the region such as Chile, Colombia, and Uruguay; and to design a proposal adapted to the Ecuadorian context. The methodology employed a mixed approach with documentary review, statistical analysis of indicators, semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, and international comparative matrices, allowing for a robust triangulation of results. The analysis revealed strengths such as broad coverage and a robust legal framework, but also weaknesses in grid investment, institutional coordination, and backup planning. Based on these findings, a comprehensive management model was proposed that includes grid modernization, matrix diversification with greater incorporation of solar and wind energy, construction of backup plants, and regulatory simplification to attract private investment. The conclusions confirm that the current model requires profound modernization and that the recommendations, accompanied by key performance indicators (KPIs), constitute a viable roadmap for moving toward an efficient, sustainable, and resilient energy system. Keywords: Efficient management, Energy service, Alternatives, Proposal, Management model.