Análisis técnico-económico comparativo de resultados de los contratos petroleros en el Ecuador: participación vs servicios específicos 2000- 2024

Abstract

The study analyzes the economic and operational impact of the contract modalities applied in the country’s oil sector, with the objective of determining how participation contracts and specific service contracts influence investment, production, efficiency, and fiscal revenues. It is proposed as a hypothesis that the incentive structure of each contractual modality generates differentiated effects on sector performance, which justifies the need to comparatively evaluate both regimes. For this purpose, a historical database was built with aggregated information from 2000 to 2024, and a mixed methodological design was used that complemented descriptive, comparative, and econometric analysis. Official series from Petroecuador, ARCH, the Central Bank of Ecuador (BCE), and the Ministry of Energy were used, which were selected, deflated, and organized to estimate fixed-effects models. The results showed that participation contracts generated higher levels of investment and production, while service contracts contributed to fiscal stability but with lower operational dynamism. It is concluded that contractual modality significantly influences the sector’s performance and that a balanced incentive structure is essential to optimize the State’s oil revenue. Keywords: Contracts, Oil, Investment, Econometrics, Production