Efecto del servicio de deuda pública en el gasto social Ecuatoriano

Abstract

The present research analyzes the role of public debt in Ecuador’s budget bill and its direct impact on the allocation of resources for social spending. In a context of significant financial obligations, the study addresses the dilemma faced by the Ecuadorian State: meeting internal and external debt payments and deadlines while striving to sustain or increase investment in sectors such as health, education, social welfare, and especially security. The main objective is to determine the relationship that public indebtedness exerts on social spending decisions reflected in Ecuador’s annual budget bill, assessing how the structure and conditions of public debt constrain or condition the country’s social policy. For this purpose, the methodology will be based on an ARDL time series analysis of budget bills and public debt reports over the last 25 years. Quantitatively, an econometric time series analysis will be conducted using data from the 2001–2025 period. Key variables such as debt (principal amortizations and interest payments), the total public debt balance as a percentage of GDP, and budget allocations to the sectors of health, education, security, and social welfare will be examined. This analysis seeks to identify the elasticity of social spending in response to variations in debt obligations. Keywords: Ecuador, public debt, social spending, fiscal deficit, interest, capital amortization