Análisis del impacto de la cartera de crédito castigada sobre la colocación de nuevos créditos en los bancos privados del Ecuador, con base en datos estadísticos y lineamientos normativos durante el periodo comprendido diciembre 2017– abril 2025

Abstract

The study assesses the impact of credit write-offs on the lending capacity of Ecuadorian private banks between January 2018 and April 2025. Using monthly data from the Superintendencia de Bancos del Ecuador, a panel database was constructed to analyze the relationship between the removal of uncollectible loans and credit growth, incorporating both micro-financial and macroeconomic variables. Im–Pesaran–Shin unit root tests and random-effects models were applied, with model selection validated through the Hausman test, and estimations differentiated by bank size. The results show that write-offs affect lending capacity in a heterogeneous manner: in small banks, an increase in write-offs significantly reduces loan placement both in the current period and in subsequent lags; in medium-sized banks, the relationship becomes positive at certain lags, reflecting an accounting-cleanup effect that facilitates credit recovery; whereas in large banks, the impact is statistically significant but economically minimal due to their higher capitalization and diversification. The analysis confirms that the sensitivity of credit placement to write-offs depends on institutional scale and on internal factors such as profitability, operational efficiency, and liquidity. The study concludes that prudential policies should be adapted to the size and risk profile of financial institutions, given that write-offs constitute a key determinant of credit sustainability and the stability of the Ecuadorian financial system.