Presiones territoriales y exposición de la infraestructura petrolera en Ecuador: un enfoque geoespacial y multicriterio

Abstract

CONDITION FOR PUBLICATION OF PROJECT. Oil infrastructure represents a strategic component of the global energy system; however, its location within dynamic territories increases its exposure to physical, environmental, and social pressures. In Ecuador, this condition is intensified by the convergence of geodynamic complexity, environmentally sensitive ecosystems, and differentiated socio-territorial patterns. To address this issue, this study aims to determine territorial pressure indices for the assessment of spatial exposure of oil infrastructure using a geospatial–multicriteria approach. The methodology was developed in three phases: i) spatial characterization of physical, environmental, and social variables; ii) integration of these variables through the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and Weighted Linear Combination (WLC) to estimate a Territorial Pressure Index; and iii) evaluation and zoning of exposure levels for oil blocks, production fields, pipeline networks, and operational facilities. The results reveal a heterogeneous territorial distribution, with high and very high exposure levels concentrated in regions with high densities of oil assets and strategic transportation corridors, mainly within the Andean–Amazonian domain, while coastal sectors exhibit predominantly low exposure levels. The proposed approach constitutes a replicable tool to support preventive planning and to strengthen sustainable risk management in the hydrocarbon sector. Keywords: territorial pressures, oil infrastructure, spatial exposure, geospatial analysis, multicriteria decision-making, risk management.