Impacto de las recientes políticas energéticas en la producción Petrolera y el desarrollo económico de Ecuador: Evaluación y estrategias para la sostenibilidad

Abstract

Energy is a necessary resource for practically all human activities, and at present, oil remains the main energy resource worldwide. In Ecuador, this dependence is particularly pronounced: in 2024, the energy matrix shows that 77.1% of the energy consumed came from fossil fuels. Moreover, oil production is closely linked to the General State Budget (PGE), since the State depends on oil revenues to finance public investment — including projects in the energy sector itself. Consequently, a reduction in production entails lower availability of fiscal resources. To optimize production and increase the recovery factor, there are secondary and enhanced recovery methods (enhanced oil recovery, EOR) that are applied when the natural pressure of an oil reservoir declines. The aim of this research was to identify the main energy policies implemented in the 2015–2024 period and to assess their impact on oil production, energy sustainability, and Ecuador’s economy through a technical, regulatory, and financial analysis based on historical data, case studies, and economic evaluation, in order to establish guidelines for a strategic plan that ensures economic stability and energy sustainability. Six main energy policies were identified and, based on the assessment of their impact, it was determined that, in a scenario with EOR and a recovery factor of 20%, the losses from the closure of Block 43–ITT would amount to USD 27,088.1 million, representing an estimate that could increase as the technical assumptions used in the analysis are varied. Over the same period, oil production fell from 541.3 kbpd (thousand barrels per day) to 473.4 kbpd, and the downward trend could not be reversed. In this context, the implementation of secondary and enhanced recovery projects is necessary to overcome this stagnation. The financial analysis showed a strong fiscal dependence on oil and the need to use oil revenues as a financial bridge for the energy transition. Finally, seven strategic principles were proposed to guide planning and policy design for the sustainable development of Ecuador’s energy sector; these principles synthesize the results of the technical, economic, regulatory, and sustainability analysis and aim to steer the transition toward a more renewable and diversified energy mix. Keywords: energy public policies, secondary and enhanced oil recovery (EOR), public finances, regulatory framework.